Let me start by saying that I have no information whatsoever to support the theory I’m about to propound. It’s pure political conjecture.

However, all the signs are there, and there are facts to support it. Here’s the theory:

President Bush is increasingly a lame duck, and since the Vice President is a non-starter, he has no obvious successor. The President believes there is no more important mission for the next President, and the nation for that matter, than winning the War on Terror. So more than anything else, he’s looking a successor who will continue the fight and continue his policies – most notably, taking the fight to the terrorists on their turf before they bring it to our shores.

The President likely believes, as I do, that no Democrat can be relied on to fight the War on Terror effectively and aggressively. And looking at the likely Republican field, there are too many foreign policy blank slates. Certainly, too many candidates who say all the right things but have no track record and no experience. The President might also think that his successor ought to have some understanding of the military given the current state of war.

So the President is looking for a strong, tough, independent leader who can be counted on to continue current policies on terrorism and the war, stay the course in Iraq, and ensure the military is an effective fighting force to face today’s ever-present threat.

It’s not hard how he sees Sen. McCain as the ideal choice, given those criteria.

Of course, to make the leap from believing that the Senator is the right choice to take over leadership of the War on Terror to supporting him for the Presidency, one has to set aside much of the rest of the Senator’s record.

Most notably that he’s a dishonest, self-contrived phony.

Nevertheless, there are more and more subtle signs that the President may be setting the stage to back Senator McCain as his successor.

• Some of the President’s key political advisors are signing on with Senator McCain.
• Senator McCain is being allowed to effectively veto at least on of the President’s judicial nominees without so much as a whimper from the White House.
• Senator McCain remains the stoutest supporter of the President’s course of action in Iraq.

To be sure, it’s a thin case, based on facts anyway. So chalk it up to gut feeling if you like. But the more I think about it, the more I think I’m right and the more nauseas I feel. I’ll do the full diatribe on the Senator later. For now, what does everything else think? Am I crazy?

And if so, what are the implications?

Cam: What are the implications? You mean besides the fact that I just threw up a little in my mouth?

The notion that President Bush is making things easier for McCain to begin his ‘08 run wouldn’t shock me, but quite frankly, that would indicate there’s an actual plan of action being executed right now. I’m still not sure that’s the case.

Jim: Interesting. First, I probably ought to note that I don’t share the disdain for McCain that many conservatives feel. I wouldn’t call him a “a dishonest, self-contrived phony,” for example.

But let me try to poke holes in Marshall’s evidence. First, it’s not surprising that some of Bush’s advisers are signing on with McCain. They’re GOP consultants with two successful campaigns under their belt. They’re going to be shopping for a frontrunner, or at least a guy with a great shot at the nomination and the presidency. (No guy wants their resume to read, “Bush-Cheney 2000 campaign, Bush-Cheney 2004 campaign, Alan Keyes 2008 campaign.”) There are, right now, only four serious candidates for the GOP nomination — McCain, Romney, Giuliani and Allen. That could change, but right now, that’s the field. Romney and Giuliani have “their guys,” the ones who have been with them throughout their careers; Allen signed Dick Wadhams, who’s been a genius with Senate races in recent years.

Second, right now Bush and McCain need each other. McCain needs to establish himself as a conservative so he doesn’t get squashed in the 2008 primaries, and Bush needs a popular independent to defend his unpopular policies. Could you imagine how the Hill would react to Iraq if McCain pulled a Murtha? So it’s not shocking to see them coordinating on issues - even on judges.

Marshall, I’m sure you’ll be able to point to many, many decisions on the part of Sen. “I’d rather get rid of the First Amendment than have dirty money in politics” McCain that we would disagree with. And this posting isn’t to be interpreted as an endorsement. But I would observe that the only guy who did more for GOP candidates in 2002 and 2004 (and 2006?) was Giuliani. McCain’s got a lot of folks owing him a lot of favors — and it wouldn’t be surprising if he has been courting the President since 2001, the same way he’s courted the media that covers him.