The last few days of this election season have felt funny. Democrats are making serious gaffs in key races left and right. (Note to Maryland voters: Ben Cardin is NOT the guy you want representing you in the world’s greatest deliberative body. He would lose a debate to a brown paper sack. Note to Harold Ford: get a grip, dude.)
At the same time, it’s hard to tell if there’s any actual evidence that voters care. Conservatives are pointing to a spat of polls that show races closing. But in many of the same races, there are other polls showing no real tightening at all.
So, the question of the week: how much can Democrats’ campaigns implode before voters notice?
Certainly, the answers depend on the state and the campaign. But the polls are not at all enlightening. Four years ago, a colleague predicted the total demise of telephone surveys in political campaigns. It’s clear that he was right — and one cycle earlier than he predicted.
Jim: I feel like we’re going to get one of two results on Election Day. Either the MSM is right, the polls are right, the lefty blogs are right, Nancy Pelosi and Howard Dean are right, and they’ve got the real vision that this country wants… or we don’t, and all of these folks have been in a bubble and an echo chamber and remain as out of touch as ever. Today my gut is telling me - and I could very well be wrong - that it breaks one way or the other in the last day or two. Either we’re saluting Senators Steele, and Kean, and Burns, and Talent, and Corker and Allen, or we’re saying farewell to most of them.
The past few weeks have been odd - I’m seeing poll numbers that just don’t make sense, and that I just don’t trust. It’s them against me; maybe I’m in the bubble or the echo chamber. In 2004, I was really, really right; who knows about this year. My book is already not-quite-disproven, but terrorism and national security clearly got knocked from the headlines for quite a few weeks because we all had to figure out which Republican was secretly gay.
Either the MSM still has the capacity to set the agenda and persuade voters, or they don’t. If I’m wrong, it means I have to go back to the drawing board, and rethink what I thought I knew. If I’m right… well, save the date, because this is going to be GLOAT CENTRAL.
The On Tap gang met for the first time on Election Night 2004. Cam brought Jim and I in to serve as analysts for his show’s Election Night coverage. We’ve been friends ever since.
On November 7, we’ll be doing the sequel — Election Night coverage on Cam’s show. (Cam, what time do we go on the air?)
So tune in on Election Night and get your fix from us. We’re much more interesting than those bums on network news.
Cam: We begin our coverage at 8 p.m. Eastern on NRAnews.com. At 9 p.m. Sirius Patriot 144 picks up our coverage, which will conclude at 1 a.m. Eastern.
Jim: Folks, you have a lot of good options for Election Night coverage, but I’m going to urge you to tune in to Cam, either over the web or via Sirius, whether or not you’re into gun stuff. Of course, if you’re into Second Amendment issues, you really have no excuse to not watch; nobody’s going to cover the races that matter to you the way Cam & Company will.
I’m not gonna completely self-promote; I’m going to instead promote Marshall’s knowledge, gut instincts, research, and horse sense. Imagine a Stuart Rothenberg free of Inside-the-Beltway thinking, or a Michael Barone with less tendency to evoke Mr. Spock from Star Trek, or John Zogby who didn’t suck. Or a Dan Rather who didn’t make #%& up.
In fact, I understand the RNC has a clear system for interpreting indicators for Election Day:
- Bad polls? Ignore.
- Bad headlines? To be expected.
- Cranky bloggers? No big deal.
- Candidate scandals? We can endure ‘em.
- Marshall Says We’re Gonna Have a Bad Year? PANIC!
I’m only half-joking; Marshall’s earlier bad vibes about this year were my only “Oh, ^$#@#, Republicans are going to get their asses handed to them” shudder so far this cycle.
On Election Night 2004, Marshall and I were the first to declare Bush the winner. And it wasn’t just guessing; we looked at Kerry under-performing Gore in blue states and said, “If he can’t do better than Gore here, he’s not going to do better than Bush in the red states he need to win.” Thus, early in the evening, we called every state correctly except Wisconsin, and that was probably only in Kerry’s column because of voter fraud in Milwaukee.
Seriously, Marshall’s plugged in in the political world, I’ve got the Hotline to Obi Wan, and Cam is the ringmaster of the whole circus. Honestly, for sheer fun and laughs to go with the early word and inside scoops, there is no place I’d rather be on Election Night.
Okay, other than watching the early returns in Monica Bellucci’s bedroom.
The St. Louis Cardinals are one of the best franchises in baseball. The Cards are second only behind the Yankees in World Championships, and St. Louis is the best baseball town in America. They’ve had great teams now for a few years, and I’m glad to see them break through and win.
Congrats, too, to Cardinals shortstop David Eckstein. He won the World Series MVP award for his timely play-making. But more even then his big-time hitting and all-star glove, Eckstein is the heart and soul of his team. He’s a throwback. A guy who plays ball because he loved the game. A guy who works hard to ring everything out of his body, mind and spirit. A guy who routinely over-achieves.
And the kind of player who doesn’t win MVP awards. They are usually reserved for the big star who hits lots of homeruns. Eckstein is slap hitter whose only home runs are flukes. He gets the job done. Moves the runner over, and delivers wins for his team.
I’m thrilled that a guy like this — and especially Eckstein — is getting the recognition he deserves.
So it must be time for the Washington Post to revive the charges that Senator George Allen is a racist and put it on the front page.
The Post’s efforts to help elect liberal candidates in Virginia are well known and date back years. For example, in 1989, many observers believed that the Post’s daily drumbeat of negative coverage attacking Gubenatorial candidate Marshall Coleman swung that election to Doug Wilder. The Post’s anti-Coleman crusade included a highly dubious last minute poll that showed Wilder well ahead. (He won by less than one percent.)
Why the Post’s liberal agenda is so much more pronounced in its state coverage is a mystery. But it’s there. And today’s story demonstrates that the paper has put Senator Allen at the top of its list. Indeed, it’s doubtful that any other paper that covers the Commonwealth would view today’s story even as newsworthy, much less worthy of the front page.
Broadly, I’m a big fan of the Post. Their coverage of national politics, sports and style is outstanding. But in this case, they have swung decisively from covering the news to outright advocacy. So, as voters contemplate their Election Day choice, they must look elsewhere for balanced coverage of the campaign. That’s too bad. And the Post ought to be ashamed of itself.
I’m not a big beer guy, but I confess that I’m curious to try some of these seasonal flavors.
Doesn’t look like the Chocolate Lager will be available in the East Coast however. I’ll have to try Sam Adams’ Old Fezziwig Ale instead.
Marshall: I don’t know about this stuff. Beer isn’t wine. I don’t want to be discussing crisp finishes and hints of blackberries and chocolate when I’m drinking beer. Give me the good stuff. Scottish bitters or Irish stout. But the designer beers? You can have them.
Jim: Uh, guys, the blog is called On Tap. Of course we stand foresquare behind microbrews, seasonal flavors, and experimentation. I just had a great Palmetto Pale Ale down here in Hilton Head. Sure, you’re not always going to hit a winner, but sometimes you want your standard selections, and sometimes you want something a little different. I like some raspberry, or bumbleberry, or wheat beer Hefeweizens.
I’m not above a Budweiser, but I like the fact that the average bar today has a good half-dozen tastes on tap. Sam Adams Octoberfest, Cranberry Lambic, Killian’s Irish Red, the Magic Hat I had the other night, Pete’s Wicked, the varieties of Capitol City Brewing Company…
Remember, for much of the last year and a half I’ve had the option of Efes (okay Turkish beer), Tuborg or Carlsberg on tap. That’s it.
So appreciate the variety on tap at your local drinking establishment; you never know what you have, until you lose it…
One of my Edel-colleagues is working on a master’s thesis, wherein he is studying the impact of RSS on how people consume information on the net. He’s prepared a short survey. Do him a favor and go through it. The more data he collects, the better his study will be.
Shempu: Wheee! I like surveys. I like to click things with my flippers!
Cam: Sorry about that Marshall. I left the door to the bathroom open and Shempu got out of the tub.
Jim: Sigh. I hate Shempu.
Marshall: Here, Shempu. Have a fish. Good boy. Now back in the tub with you.
Cam, do you find Shempu takes full advantage of RSS?
Cam: I’m surprised Shempu can find the computer, so I’d be shocked if he uses RSS feeds. I know I don’t. I’m not sure why really, other than the fact that I enjoy surfing around from one site to another.
My old friends at the Center for Individual Freedom have an astonishing must-read investigative report about corruption of the legal system in south Texas. And it speaks volumes about the need for common sense legal reform and good, impartial and honest judges.
The story sounds like a John Grisham novel. But it’s all too true.
Some of the juicier bits, according to CFIF:
- There’s a trial lawyer suing Ford for tens of millions of dollars.
- He’s representing both the plaintiffs and one of the defendants.
- His lover winds up on the jury and starts tampering the moment she is sworn in.
- And, oh yeah, she helped the lawyer sign up the plaintiffs.
- And, oh yeah, she’s the city manager. Which means there’s been no investigation because, you know, the police work for her — and the state authorities need a request from the locals to get involved.
- The judge has a clear conflict of interests, but hears the case anyway.
- And, oh yeah, he was indicted on federal charges in an unrelated matter just weeks after the trial.
Needless to say, the jury found for the plaintiffs and hit Ford with a big verdict. They’ve since settled the case for undisclosed sum.
But, oh yeah – the driver who caused the crash that was the seed for the lawsuit? He was drunk.
It’s a long read, but CFIF has told the tale well. Don’t miss it.
On NRANews.com, right now, as Bitter at BitchGirls.us wrote, “It’s like, On Tap, Live.”
So far, however, no Shempu the Magical Sperm Whale Who Lives in Cam’s Bathtub.
If you’re not watching, you’re missing things like Marshall saying, “If anybody tried to steal Cody [his dog], I’d shoot him.”
Marshall: Confidential to Bitter — *&^%#@. I left it at the office.
Marshall, again: You heard it here first. Jim’s next book: “Voting to Grill: The Story of the Smoking Cow.”
So said USA Today in a front page story yesterday. (They’ve got an excellent photo gallery here.)
The champion thoroughbred isn’t out of the woods yet, but the fact that he’s made it this far speaks volumes about him. Were it that all of our human champions had such strength of body and spirit.
Back in the spring, I reflected shortly after Barbaro’s injury that thoroughbreds were born to run. Here’s hoping that someday he’s well enough to get out in the grass and find his stride once more.
The Scene: NRANews Studios, about an hour before showtime.
Jim: So, you read Marshall’s latest post?
Cam: Mm, uh, no, not yet. Which one?
Cam lifts a drink of Diet Coke.
Jim: The one that says Secretary Donald Rumsfeld “is cancer on the department that he is supposed to be leading.”
Cam: (SPIT-TAKE) Apparently Marshall’s bringing us some traffic.
Jim’s response: Okay, wait.
First off, haven’t read Woodward’s book; kinda busy trying to sell mine. Besides that, I’m kind of tired of Woodward’s annual books; they inevitably are a usually kinda-dull sequence of meetings, full of unverifiable accounts going inside participants’ heads, in which those who talk to Woodward come across very well, and those who don’t talk to Woodward come across very poorly. (The first book about the first days after 9/11 was different, if for no other reason than the historical importance of those first days.)
And, I would note, Woodward’s reputation has been hit several times in the past year pretty badly. First, “Deep Throat” was unmasked, without Woodward’s knowledge; the book that was rushed out to seize upon the news tanked by Woodward’s usual standards. Then Woodward got mixed up in the big Plame non-scandal; finally, and perhaps most importantly, the Icon of Investigative Journalism was getting slammed by his liberal friends as a sellout, a suck-up, a hagiographer who offered glowing portraits of Bush and his Cabinet in exchange for access. I disagree with the nasty portrait offered by Woodward’s liberal critics, but if I’m still fuming over blog commenters sniping at my Eddie Munster haircut and “developing double chin”; I can see how Woodward would be bothered by the criticism, and seek to rebut it by burnishing his Bush-critic bonafides.
So the same team that came across as heroic in Woodward’s first post-9/11 book, and that still came across as okay in his 2004 book, now comes across as a bunch of bumblers in 2006. Once Bush’s approval rating came down, it became safe, and wise for Woodward’s career, to offer a picture of Bush and Rice and Rummy that is not merely more critical, but a portrait of incompetence and incoherence that is completely at odds with the portraits in the previous books.
Same folks, completely different portrait; this time Woodward focused on every flaw he could find. And how hard is it to find people willing to complain about their co-workers? How tough is it to find people willing to say, “I did my job fine, it’s all Rummy’s fault”?
Rummy: Maybe the criticism of Rummy is warranted, but I’m skeptical. Rummy went into the job with Mission Impossible: Reform the ferschtunkin’ Pentagon, where careers are built preparing for the last war. How many enemies did Rummy make trying to get rid of the Crusader Artillery system, the exact weapon we need if the Soviet Armies march toward Western Europe? (Not long ago, I saw former Rep. J.C. Watts on CNN, respectfully declining to defend Rummy from a liberal critic. Think Watts is still upset that the Crusader isn’t being manufactured in his home state?) How many people were comfortable with the way things were before Rummy started attempting to bring the institution in line to deal with modern threats? He certainly made mistakes in his efforts in this area, but he aimed at the right goal; there are many in the defense establishment who have the wrong goal: The status quo.
By the way, IIRC, Rummy offered to resign at least twice; Bush rejected it both times. Which brings us to…
Bush: Yup, a good chunk of the criticism, be it in State of Denial or elsewhere, is accurate. Not a detail man. Too much of a delegator. Like Bill Parcells, he has “his guys” and trusts them in every detail way longer than he should. Hates dealing with the press, and his communication suffers for it. Doesn’t seem to be terribly creative or innovative; content to keep plodding along when a new approach is needed.
But he’s the guy we got, and the alternative options both times were not superior. Lesson for the next time around – get the guy who’s the best communicator.
Powell: Let me guess, Colin Powell comes across heroic, wise, the one who should have been heeded in the book? I’m a little tired of hearing about how great Powell is. Never has a Cabinet Secretary walked on water as often as Powell did his press clippings.
Look, if Colin Powell wanted to be President, the job was his for the taking in 1996. If he wanted to be Dole’s Vice President, he could have done that. If he wanted to be Bush’s Vice President, I’m sure the President Bush would have been amenable, the moment Powell hinted he was interested.
Colin Powell wants to have the authority of the President, and the good press of being a moderate, and to be buddies with Bob Woodward, as Powell has been a big source for Woodward since the Gulf War. But he doesn’t want to actually go through the grief and aggravation of running for President. So he accepts the job as Secretary of State, and acts like he’s the President. Or that he knows a lot better than the president, and he would be doing things completely differently, and will tell anyone in the press who will listen.
In 1996, I stood on line for hours to get Powell’s autobiography signed. That year, I wanted that man to be president something fierce. Had he run in 2000, I might have been tempted to support him. But man oh man, has my take on him changed. He seems to be the epitome of the inside-the-beltway Bureaucratic infighter.
On the Mid Term Elections: First, thanks for the plug.
I think confirmation hearings for any successor will be brutal. Bush could appoint Dwight Eisenhower, or Douglas MacArthur, or General George S. Patton or Mars the God of War Himself, and the Democrats would at the very least split down the middle on support. At least half of the Senate Democrats would vote against the nominee in order to preserve their viability in the 2008 presidential primaries.
An interesting question is, would a different Secretary of Defense result in a significant change in the circumstances on the ground in Iraq? Maybe, but I’m a bit skeptical. Right now, the crux of the issue in Iraq is that the Sunnis and the Shias are pouring their energies into killing each other; the Kurds are pouring their efforts into establishing a state that can break away in the near future. I don’t see any easy option to improve those circumstances; I see even fewer options that will be effective in terms of making changes in Washington. I strongly suspect that Rummy’s critics will be disappointed when he departs and they find that the situation remains essentially the same.
So… I do not expect a Republican-controlled Congress to improve things in Iraq; however, I am fairly certain that a Democratic-controlled Congress will focus obsessively on pointing fingers and assigning blame, and will abandon the Iraqi people and any hope of a decent, stable and free state in the Middle East at the first opportunity.