I don’t have anything like the sources for political insight that Jim has. Just a few friends scattered around the country. One, a seasoned political observer and active caucus-goer from Iowa, wrote to me this morning after I asked him how I thought the caucuses will go:

The caucuses? My take, Romney is going to win it, hands down. He’s been here in the state a lot, and he practically owns it. Fred Thompson will probably do well, but I don’t know that he’ll win it…Romney’s too invested to let him just come in and win, so I think it will be a hard-fought campaign between the two, and it could be close. McCain and Rudy basically told Iowa to go take a flying leap when they said they weren’t getting in the straw poll (they said it was about “resources”, but I think it’s because they knew they would lose it and didn’t want to give Romney that kind of PR), and they’re tanking fast here.

No question that it’s pretty early to be drawing such conclusions, but the caucuses are unlike any other form of election. Organization matters. Intensity of support matters. Knowing the rules and how to make the most of them matters a lot. And it’s clear that Romney has committed to Iowa in a way that few — if any — of the Republican candidates have.

Of course, George H.W. Bush won Iowa in 1980, too. And we know where that got him…