Huckabee: Soon to Return to Earth
Yesterday, while exchanging instant messages with Jim, I predicted that Huckabee’s surge wouldn’t last. Here’s what I said:
“A whole bunch of Republicans are about to wake up and realize that the party cannot nominate Mike Huackbee. I predict that by Christmas, he’s fallen to second in most of the states where he is now leading.”
This morning I noticed this post on Patrick Ruffini’s site which included this money quote from one of his readers:
Not to confuse the Romney camp with the Kremlin, but using Huckabee to take out Mitt in Iowa seems to resemble using the Muhadjadeen to remove the Soviets from Afghanistan…once they are done they will be as big a problem for us as the old enemy was.
Just to be clear, I don’t share the view of Patrick’s reader that Romney is a problem. As I’ve said, I haven’t settled on a candidate yet. But this diagnosis of the party’s emerging Huckabee problem is on target, and becoming more so as Huckabee comes under increasing scrutiny and voters learn more about his views and record.
Republicans are waking up. We’re 13 days out in Iowa. 27 days out in New Hampshire. Most voters are only starting to really think about their choices. Much can and will change before the first votes are cast. And Huckabee’s opponents are only starting to focus on him.
I predict a significant return to earth for the former Arkansas Governor over the next 12 days.
Jim: I’ll have more to say in an upcoming NRO article. There are some parts of Huckabee’s candidacy that really appeal to me, but some parts really rub me the wrong way, and the last few weeks have provided more of the latter than the former…
Marshall: Here’s the NRO article that Jim referenced above. Interesting take, Jim.
December 14th, 2007 at December 14, 2007 - 12:38 am
Check out what I said on December 8 http://www.johndennis.com/
December 14th, 2007 at December 14, 2007 - 9:55 am
I predict that if the GOP continues to attack Huckabee, that the “Christian Base” they are so great at pandering to, will drop the GOP completely and the GOP will never win another presidency.
December 14th, 2007 at December 14, 2007 - 5:45 pm
It seems to me that the Huckabee “surge” isn’t that at all: it’s the Mitt & Rudy *plunge*, after John’s *crash* in enemy territory.
If I were planning a campaign, the best place to be would be where Ron Paul stands … primed for a peak in January. It’s not fable, but a clear appraisal of the fact that most people have never heard of him (and will be hearing a lot soon) and most who do know him … like him!
My analysis:
Ron Paul Can Win: BIG
http://www.nolanchart.com/article440.html
And, a peak behind the most novel promotion in any election:
Ron Paul Blimp Soars Over BiCRA
http://www.nolanchart.com/article448.html
December 15th, 2007 at December 15, 2007 - 1:45 am
I predict that the worst of Huckabee’s skeletons have NOT yet “hit” the mainstream press.
Once they do, well his integrity will be shown to be not merely questionable, but non-existent. And his “support” — even among the “Christian base” will vanish like a puffball.
Whether most will then stay home, or look to the only candidate with true integrity — remains to be seen; but it’ll probably be a bit of both.
December 16th, 2007 at December 16, 2007 - 4:59 pm
[…] As I suggested, conservatives are starting to take a good, hard look at Huckabee’s record, and they don’t like what they see. […]