I’m off to one of the last few places in the world that’s largely undisturbed by man. And no, it isn’t the arctic. I’ll have lots to say about the trip when I get back, and lots of photos to illustrate it with.
Until then, I leave you in the hands of my good and faithful co-bloggers. Hopefully, both of you readers will still be here when I return. (But don’t worry. I’ve written my portion of the final On Tap Award. It should post itself tomorrow morning while I’m on my way to the airport. I know you’re dying to see it.)
While I’m gone, I’m told that I won’t have any access to any outside news. Indeed, there really won’t be any communication of any kind.
And by the time I get home, the Iowa caucuses will be over and the New Hampshire will be done.
It will be very interesting to see how the race looks after these two pivotal weeks without being a witness to the day-to-day tactics, the back-and-forth in the press, and all of the other minutiae that usually consumes political watchers like me.
It’s presumptuous to think that I’ll have anything profound or interesting to say, but this sort of thing can’t happen very often, so at a minimum, I’m sure I’ll have an unusual perspective.
Before I go, I’ll leave you with some predictions:
Huckabee is going to win Iowa, but Romney is going to finish closer to him than anyone expects. 7,000 Mormon caucus goers can have a tremendous impact. Romney will leave Iowa with the momentum. I have no idea who is going to finish third. My powers of vision don’t go that deep. (Side note: the results look the same in Wyoming on January 5.)
Romney’s momentum will be stopped in New Hampshire with John McCain’s victory there. Huckabee will finish second. Romney third. The final tallies are very close, with McCain prevailing by only a couple of points, but the press dubs him the comeback kid and predicts big things. Fred Thompson drops out the day after and endorses McCain.
On January 11, I’ll be back in the country to see how my foresight fares against actual events.
Either way, I predict Romney will win Michigan.
That means South Carolina will once again be a huge battleground. You could argue that whoever wins South Carolina will capture enough momentum to win the nomination. Or not…
See you in a couple of weeks.
Jim: I predict that Marshall will come back and ask, “Okay, maybe I could see Ron Paul winning either Iowa or New Hampshire, but BOTH?” And then he’ll drop to his knees before a cracked, damaged Statue of Liberty buried up to its chest and wail, “You Maniacs! You blew it up! Ah, d*** you! God d*** you all to hell!”
Semi-seriously, there’s only a few broad predictions I’m willing to make right now. First, Iowa will be very close between Romney and Huckabee - probably less than six percent between them, and maybe less than three percent. Despite the 33-30 or so finish, the second place finisher will be seen as seriously damaged. It’s not fair, but it’s the way the post-Iowa buzz will play out. I don’t know if third place will be enough to generate some momentum for Fred Thompson; there’s a big difference between finishing third with 20 percent and finishing third with 15 percent. I also think there will be a cascade effect; winners of Iowa and New Hampshire will surge in Michigan and South Carolina….
Related Posts
» Some insight on Iowa
» NRA News Tonight
» Edelman experts on the role of Iowa and N.H.
» Quote of the Day…
» Huckabee’s Version of the Scream?

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December 29, 2007 - 6:44 am
[…] On Tap » A Visit to the News Void; Iowa & N.H. Predictions (tags: 2008 gop) […]