Judges Shouldn’t Be Elected
By: Marshall Manson on January 29, 2008 - 3:23 pm

There’s an interesting story in the New York Times today about a study of how campaign contributions affected judicial rulings in Louisiana. The study asserts that judges are biased toward their contributors.

I don’t know whether the study is accurate or not, but at the end, who cares.

Judges shouldn’t be in the position to take contributions in the first place. They shouldn’t be elected.

Elected judges just invites problems. Judges should have one master: the law. Judges cannot and should not be accountable to voters. Making them so fairly raises the question of their motives and bias in their rulings. Did they hand down an extra long sentence so they could include in their re-election mail? Uphold a dicey product liability verdict because they were afraid of a backlash from voters sympathetic to the plaintiffs?

Justice can’t be for sale. And it shouldn’t subject to the whims of politics. That’s why federal judges are appointed for life. States and localities ought to adopt a similar approach.


divider
Florida Prediction
By: Marshall Manson on January 29, 2008 - 7:59 am

Well, I broke my perfect record in South Carolina. But I’m getting back on the horse anyway. Today is, arguably, the biggest day in the Republican nominating process. It’s the last primary before Super Tuesday, and the first truly big state.

The race in Florida has been an ugly battle between Senator McCain, Governor Romney and Mayor Guiliani. Polls have the race very close between McCain and Romney with Guiliani trailing. If the former New York Mayor finishes third, his Presidential bid is likely done.

My prediction? Romney is going to win Florida, though it will be close. The late endorsement by Governor Crist will come to nothing. Guiliani will finish third and drop out on Wednesday.

That will set up a head-to-head Super Tuesday between McCain and Romney for all the marbles.


divider
Where do I sign up to help defeat Mike Huckabee?
By: Marshall Manson on January 17, 2008 - 7:16 pm

A representative of a rival campaign drew my attention to this post at the Jawa Report.

In essence, Governor Huckabee yesterday repudiated the First Amendment and the concept of free speech by announcing that he would like to “outlaw” any political speech not expressly “authorized and approved by the candidate.”

According to Jawa’s Rusty Shacklford, the quote in question came from an interview with NPR yesterday morning. Rusty quoted Governor Huckabee as saying:

“I personally wish that all of this was outlawed. I think that every candidate should speak for themselves, and that every thing that involves the candidate’s name or another candidate’s name should be authorized and approved by that candidate, otherwise it shouldn’t be spoken….

“The point is that candidates can’t force these special interest 527 groups to stop. I wish we could.”

I really thought the basic tenets of Constitution were generally past debate. It never occurred to me that a candidate for President might simply come out against individual freedom. Even Senator McCain — no friend of free speech — has the sense to at least try to be subtle about it.

But one thing is clear: Anyone who believes such a thing is no conservative — regardless of the snake oil he’s trying to peddle — and he cannot be elected President.

It seemed so outrageous that I just had to listen for myself. I didn’t believe that a person who had served as Governor of one of these United States could have possibly said such a thing. But he did. Rusty’s quote is accurate. Word for word.

In case you have any doubts about the context or anything else, a more complete transcript follows. (And you can listen to the audio of the interview here. The discussion in question starts are 2:20 in.)

Q: Governor Huckabee, as we just said, the next important primary for Republicans is this Saturday in South Carolina.

People there have been reporting getting automated phone calls from an interest group supporting you, a group called Common Sense Issues. It’s what’s known as push-polling. It’s where a pollster asks voters leading questions that include negative or misleading information about other candidates. Your campaign may not actually be doing that — another group is doing it — but will you demand that this group or any group doing push polling on your behalf, stop.

A: We have done that. And we’ve done it every state where we’ve participated. We don’t know who these people are.

I personally wish all of this were outlawed. I think every candidate ought to speak for himself, and, uh, that everything that involves the candidate’s name or another candidate’s name should be authorized and approved by that candidate. Otherwise, it shouldn’t be spoken.

Q: Can’t you get an interest group that is supposedly doing something on your campaign’s behalf — can’t you get them to stop?

A: No. How can you? The law prohibits us having any conversation with them. I can publicly call for it, but if I have a conversation with them — even to ask them to quit — it’s called coordinating, and it’s against the law. So I don’t want to go to jail because someone is doing something that I don’t like. There’s also special interest groups that are coming down here to attack me today. Now, some of the donors to those groups are major donors to Mitt Romney and others. You know, I haven’t heard Mitt Romney call out for these people to stop.

The point is that candidates can’t force these special interest 527 groups to stop. I wish we could, cuz frankly, they’re not doing me a favor by carrying out things and tactics that I don’t personally approve of.


divider
South Carolina (and Nevada) Prediction
By: Marshall Manson on January 17, 2008 - 5:53 pm

I’ve had a surprisingly good year thus far with my primary predictions. Thus far, I’ve called every the winner of every primary race correctly. South Carolina, however, is the toughest challenge yet. Senator Thompson has staked his campaign on doing well. Governor Romney might have momentum coming out of Michigan. Senator McCain should have strong support in the Lowcountry. And Governor Huckabee should do very well Upstate, where most of the Republican primary voters live.

I suspect most analysts will pick McCain. And his winning is certainly a strong possibility. If Thompson and Huckabee split Upstate conservative vote, while McCain takes the bulk of the Lowcountry vets and moderates across the state, he will win. And polls out today suggest that Thompson is, in fact, gaining — most likely, at the expense of Huckabee.

Nevertheless, I predict that Governor Huckabee is going to prevail, and win by a larger margin than most people expect — perhaps 6 or 7 percentage points — over Senator McCain. Governor Romney will finish third and Senator Thompson fourth. This is based on my belief that Governor Huckabee’s supporters are more strongly motivated to go to the polls than Senator McCain’s, and that Thompson’s support is thin. Indeed, many conservatives may head to the polls intending to vote for Thompson and wind up voting for Huckabee.

From there, it’s on to Florida where Mayor Guiliani makes his stand.

In Nevada, Governor Romney wins by a solid margin. With more than 150,000 Mormons in the state, he better.

UPDATE: I made some corrections to my South Carolina geographical references. Thanks to my SC friend who pointed out my mistakes.


divider
I’m Back! (And My Prediction for Michigan)
By: Marshall Manson on January 14, 2008 - 8:06 am

Back in the U.S., caught up on political news, and on the heels of correctly predicting the outcomes of Iowa and New Hampshire, I thought I would offer my read of the crystal ball for Michigan.

Romney is going to win. McCain will finish second, and Huckabee third.

Romney’s victory will slow McCain’s momentum, and the media will start to reposition the race as wide open.

The winner of South Carolina, then, will matter less than who fails to win, and it may serve to narrow the field before Super Tuesday.

Oh, and BTW, I don’t have the foggiest idea what’s going to happen in Nevada.

At this point, Super Tuesday is shaping up as a gigantic mess that may not settle anything. Assuming Guiliani does well enough in Florida to stick around for another week, we could wind up with a series of regional winners. Guiliani could take most of the northeastern states, with Huckabee winning primaries in the south. That would leave McCain and Romneyy to fight it out for the rest — and to fight it out for second in places like New York.

And all of sudden, everyone is packing their bags for a convention. See you in Minneapolis!


divider
The Revolving Wheel of Snot
By: Cam Edwards on January 6, 2008 - 4:20 pm

Help! I’m stuck on the Wheel of Snot, which is what I call the process of:

a) kid bringing home germs from school

b) kid gets sick

c) kid passes illness on to rest of house

d) kid goes back to school and starts the process all over again.

It’s been two weeks of this nonsense. I’m ready to cut off my nose in an effort to help my sinuses drain better at this point.


divider