I’ve had a surprisingly good year thus far with my primary predictions. Thus far, I’ve called every the winner of every primary race correctly. South Carolina, however, is the toughest challenge yet. Senator Thompson has staked his campaign on doing well. Governor Romney might have momentum coming out of Michigan. Senator McCain should have strong support in the Lowcountry. And Governor Huckabee should do very well Upstate, where most of the Republican primary voters live.

I suspect most analysts will pick McCain. And his winning is certainly a strong possibility. If Thompson and Huckabee split Upstate conservative vote, while McCain takes the bulk of the Lowcountry vets and moderates across the state, he will win. And polls out today suggest that Thompson is, in fact, gaining — most likely, at the expense of Huckabee.

Nevertheless, I predict that Governor Huckabee is going to prevail, and win by a larger margin than most people expect — perhaps 6 or 7 percentage points — over Senator McCain. Governor Romney will finish third and Senator Thompson fourth. This is based on my belief that Governor Huckabee’s supporters are more strongly motivated to go to the polls than Senator McCain’s, and that Thompson’s support is thin. Indeed, many conservatives may head to the polls intending to vote for Thompson and wind up voting for Huckabee.

From there, it’s on to Florida where Mayor Guiliani makes his stand.

In Nevada, Governor Romney wins by a solid margin. With more than 150,000 Mormons in the state, he better.

UPDATE: I made some corrections to my South Carolina geographical references. Thanks to my SC friend who pointed out my mistakes.