Being in London, I now have the chance to sleep and digest (nearly) complete results before providing analysis.
Having done so, yesterday’s results can’t be called anything but unsurprising. Clinton won the Texas and Ohio primaries, but it looks like Obama will squeak out a net gain in the delegate count as his reward for winning Vermont and the Texas caucuses.
The press will say that the Clinton campaign has been reborn, and indeed, it seems like the morale boost alone for Clinton’s staff and supporters may be worth a great deal. Also, it seems that for the first time, the Canadian mess and the business with Resko in Chicago have taken a little of the shine off of Senator Obama. Now we’ll see if he can actually take a punch and recover.
Bottom line: I don’t think the dynamics of the race have changed. And Obama has been saving up some big announcements for this week. I suspect in the next day or two we’ll hear a bunch of super delegates endorsing him. As importantly, I’m betting that he announces his 1st quarter money numbers today or tomorrow. And if Patrick is right, they will be front page news. Holding all of this news back was a good move by the Obama. It gives them a chance to recapture the momentum, even on the heels of a couple of losses.
So on to Pennsylvania. And, hopefully, Denver. But at the end of the day, as I said, the race remains frozen on a path towards a real fight at the convention. And there’s no reason to think that’s going to change.
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